Baseline outlook: the most defensible read from this combined set is disinflation with rising recession risk, paired with unusually elevated financial-market risk due to leverage, concentration, and dependence on AI-led capex. The primary contradiction is “cooling inflation and record asset prices” versus “worsening credit performance, bankruptcies, and small-business job cuts.” The unique insight is that these are not competing stories; they are the same story seen from two levels of the system.

The overall signal from these data and commentary threads points to a slow-growth, high-cost environment through mid-2026. Inflation is cooling but remains embedded in essentials such as food, energy, and insurance. Asset valuations are rich, leverage is extreme, and labour momentum is fading. The most likely scenario is sluggish growth with elevated recession risk rather than an outright crash—though a credit squeeze could tip the balance quickly if household delinquencies or CRE losses accelerate.